Case studyModel accuracy

One balcony panel, tracked

This case study follows a single 180 W plug-in solar kit on a south-facing apartment balcony in Denver, Colorado. The kit was bought from Bright Saver after becoming a member; its Hoymiles inverter carries a UL 3700 subassembly certification (Bright Saver notes whole-kit UL 3700 certification is still pending).

The goal is to test the Designer’s estimates against reality. Each day, sunlight measured at NLR’s solar research laboratory in Golden, Colorado, about 15–20 miles away, is compared with what the panel’s inverter records. The sun hours are turned into an estimate of production and then compared with the actual result. Over time this will show how accurate the Designer is, or where there’s room to improve.

Fully online since October 28, 2026. One of the first plug-in solar systems in the country, and compliant with Colorado’s plug-in solar law (HB 26-1007).

  • 360 VA, under the law’s 391 W small-device tier: no rewiring or installer requirements
  • Listed inverter (UL 3700 subassembly, CSA 80310016) with built-in outage shutoff
  • One device, plugged into a standard outdoor GFCI outlet
CASE STUDY

The setup

Sheet 1 of the Designer report: one-line electrical drawing of the balcony system
Sheet 1 of the Designer report for this balcony. Hover or tap any part of the drawing for what it means.
What each part of the drawing means
Designer report (PDF)Full 6-page setup and estimate, Fit 1 (updated Nov 12, 2026) Same kit at Bright Saver180 W Balcony Solar Kit with the Hoymiles HiFlow Pro inverter Original report (PDF)As designed, Oct 28, 2026 (old baseline)

Plugged into the balcony’s existing outdoor GFCI outlet. At 391 W or less, Colorado’s law needs no rewiring and accepts a listed inverter; the inverter’s UL 3700 certificate (CSA 80310016) allows a shared 15 A circuit. A dedicated circuit is still recommended.

The panel on the balcony rail, seen from the street below
One 180 W panel, upright on the balcony rail, facing south.
Back of the panel strapped to the balcony railing
From the balcony: the panel strapped behind the rail.
Microinverter mounted on the back of the panel
Microinverter on the panel frame; it plugs into the balcony outlet.
Panoramic view from the balcony
The view from the balcony. Nearby buildings set the morning and late-afternoon shade edges.

Live tally

Live tallyupdated Nov 12, 2026 · 15 days logged
Payback
0.61%paid back
$1.82 of $299kit cost recovered 6.7 yearsto break even at the pace so far, around Jul 2033 Designer full-year estimate: 8.0 years (prices rising 4.1% a year)
Energy
9.96 kWhmade on the balcony since Oct 28
5.3 % of the 189 kWh a year expected
Coal offset
11.4 lbof coal not burned · 6.7 kg CO₂
of 215 lb a year expected
Value
$1.82of electricity at $0.183/kWh$0.121 a day so far
Model check
−0.2 %measured vs the Designer, all 14 compared days136 Wh per sun hour measured (Nov); Designer 137
How payback is figured
How the coal offset is figured

Month by month

MonthDaysMeasured kWhEstimated kWhMeasured vs estimateValue
October 202642.652.62+1.3 %$0.48
November 2026106.496.54−0.8 %$1.19

Days compared against Golden’s sunlight. Nov 11 (0.83 kWh) is in the live tally but waits on Golden’s data before it joins this table.

What the Designer predicted

ReportYearOctoberNovember
Oct 28, 2026: original plan (old baseline)188 kWh19 kWh21 kWh
Nov 11, 2026: photo alignment refined from measured clear days (Fit 1)187.9 kWh18.6 kWh21.3 kWh
Nov 12, 2026: same Fit 1 alignment, skyline redrawn on the buildings in the photo (current)189 kWh19 kWh21 kWh

Typical-year weather (NSRDB). Real months run above or below with the weather; the monthly table above corrects for that with the measured sunlight.

A clear day

Nov 5 measured power against the Designer's clear-day estimate
Nov 5, cloudless. On a clear day the Designer’s estimate and the panel should trace the same curve. The sharp steps at 8:12 and 15:54 are the neighbouring buildings’ shade, and the model places them within a minute or two.
The same Nov 5 curve drawn over the balcony panorama, with the sun's path: the sun clears the office tower at 8:12 and meets the apartment roof at 15:54
The same day over the view from the balcony. Power jumps when the sun clears the office tower (8:12) and drops when it meets the apartment roof (15:54).
How the photo is lined up with the curve

The photo is stretched so each moment on the time axis sits under the sun’s compass bearing at that minute, using the site alignment from Fit 1. The dotted gold line is the sun’s path across the photo. Until 8:12 the sun is behind the tower and the panel gets only sky light; once it clears the edge, power jumps to about 85 W. At 15:54 the sun meets the roof and power falls back to near zero. Nothing was nudged by hand: both edges line up from the geometry alone.

Sun Safe LLC · solar research and development, Rutland, Vermont · Home · Sources · Site version v326 · November 14, 2026